Back to Variables
revenue-driversdriver

Revenue Growth Rate

Expected annual percentage increase in revenue.

revenue_growth_rateAlso: Rev Growth

Definition

Revenue Growth Rate represents the expected year-over-year increase in topline revenue driven by volume expansion, pricing changes, or market growth. It is typically the most important driver in any financial model as it cascades through the entire P&L and balance sheet.

Why It Matters

Revenue growth drives nearly every other line item in the model. Overly aggressive growth assumptions are one of the most common errors in financial modeling and can lead to significant valuation distortions.

Formula

= (Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1) - 1

Year-over-year percentage change in revenue.

Mathematical Notation
g = \frac{Revenue_t - Revenue_{t-1}}{Revenue_{t-1}}

Alternative Approaches

CAGR= (Revenue_end / Revenue_start)^(1/n) - 1

Calculating compound annual growth rate over multiple periods

Organic vs Inorganic= Organic_Growth + Acquisition_Contribution

Separating M&A impact from organic performance

Typical Ranges

startup
50%–200%
growth
15%–50%
mature
2%–8%
declining
-5%–2%

Industry-Specific Ranges

SaaS25%–100%+
Consumer Staples2%–5%
Industrials3%–8%
Healthcare5%–12%

Best Practices

Should reflect realistic market growth and company maturity. Avoid using aggressive growth beyond forecast horizon. Consider separating volume and price drivers for transparency.

Common Mistakes

  • Extrapolating recent high growth indefinitely
  • Not considering market size constraints
  • Ignoring competitive dynamics
  • Failing to fade growth to terminal rate
  • Not separating organic vs acquired growth

Pro Tips

  • Build bottom-up revenue model where possible (units × price)
  • Cross-check growth with TAM/SAM/SOM analysis
  • Compare to historical industry growth rates
  • Document key growth assumptions for review

Audit & Governance

Risk Level
High
Approval Required
manager
Sensitivity
internal
Track Changes
Yes

Learning Path

beginner

Revenue growth is the "engine" of your model. Everything else follows from how fast the company is growing. Be conservative - it's better to be pleasantly surprised than to build a model on fantasy growth.

intermediate

Separate your growth into components: volume growth, price growth, mix shift. This gives you levers to adjust and makes the model more defensible.

advanced

Build a market model: TAM × market share × penetration. This constrains growth and forces you to think about competitive dynamics and market saturation.

expert

Consider cohort analysis for subscription businesses, S-curve adoption for new products, and competitive response modeling for aggressive growth scenarios.

Used in Models

This variable is a key driver in the following financial models: